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The Research Playbook   http://researchplaybook.com/ 

You can also find the newest blog posts at:  www.AtHeath.com

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Written in collaboration with Dr. Ralph Finos

In an earlier post, we talked briefly about near-term and long-term forecasting – Why Do We Forecast?

Near-term Forecasting and Planning
In near-term planning we’re trying to be as accurate as possible about the outcome – regardless of how we get there.  The premium is on prediction vs. explanation. 

Problems like:

“What are my sales for established products likely to be in the next 6 months?”

Or demand pull considerations in the supply chain: …….

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If you have set up a Twitter account and tried to build a following, it’s likely you have experienced some level of frustration.

Starting out you can build your following with no limits from Twitter, it’s time consuming, but you can do it with or without software tools to help you. If you’ve had the good fortune to achieve a following of 2,000 you know Twitter squeezes your efforts to a 10% crawl.

Many people seem to get stuck at this point and either give up all together or turn their attention to other tasks giving the Twitter account much less attention. . . . .

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Recently, I have been exploring the profiles of friends and colleagues to see where people are regarding the use of Social Media (SM). It appears from an extensive, but unscientific exploration most of you are connected through at least one of the major social networks (there are exceptions and you know who you are).

However, it also appears many, if not most, of you are not actively pushing the SM research and marketing envelope. This blog post is one in a series to help you “Engage, Transform, and Advance” your SM presence.

Objectives
We will explore a number of ways you can put more muscle into your SM presence, but first, let’s think about why you are using SM. It’s important to know your objectives before selecting network platforms. . . . .

P.S. Use a good quality photo on all your profiles – it makes you real!

For help with profile development feel free to contact me.

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Create Email Groups
Experience has shown that one highly effective method of communication is to create and use email groups (Reply to All lists). Include everyone involved in the project on the project communication email. This semi-automates the process of keeping team members informed of progress, decisions, and issues, allowing them to react accordingly. 

Even if you don’t think the information is relevant for them at the time, it probably will be. For instance, if a team member is responsible for writing cross tab (banner book) specs, he or she can begin this process as soon as he learns the questionnaire has been finalized. The email communication alerts him or her along with the team members responsible for working on the questionnaire design. . . . .

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Research dissemination provides an audience with results through reports and presentations designed to help clients assimilate the information as quickly as possible. Graphical formats are emphasized over tabular data and an executive summary is nearly always provided. 

However, that is often not enough. Dissemination does not guarantee assimilation and is far removed from action.  Remember the purpose of market research is to solve a business problem or provide direction for business initiatives. Simply dropping off the report on the (internal or external) client’s desk does not fulfill that mission. . . . .

You can increase your knowledge by using AtHeath’s Resource Center content and the services offered.  www.atheath.com

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Furthermore, the promise of high value back links is a myth. The major search engines (SE) are too smart to fall for these hat tricks. The best practice is to work with fewer directories that are productive, posting the same article across [not within] directories to create views, website traffic, and quality back links. 

However, do not assume that this is a static situation, directories like all sites go up and down on Google page rankings and Alexa scores – so keep an eye on them. Additionally, remember not all directories are created equal with respect to productivity for your particular content. It is not a set-it-up-once and done type of game. However, you can create a process to make it efficient! 

Use a spreadsheet to log the articles you have submitted to each directory and track which articles have been approved. Also, track the numbers of views each directory has produced. You can add other elements to your log, such as reasons for not being approved and the directories current Alexa score – if you care about such information.

An article-marketing log is also a good place to keep your username and passwords for each directory, information you’ll want at your figure tips. It may help to set up a folder for the content (with subfolders for drafts vs. final products) and perhaps a SWIPE file of article ideas. Getting organized and creating a routine process will save time and reduce errors.

P.S. I have achieved expert and platinum status with a number of directories – the secret is to focus on quality… shhh don’t tell anybody.

P.P.S. You can outsource this work and that may well be a good solution for many businesses. Selecting the appropriate partner to help you is a topic we can talk about in the future.

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We forecast in order to discern what is most likely to happen in the future, which enables us to do something about it.  While the future is impossible to control (and very hard to predict), good forecasting allows us to see into dark corners. We gain insight into what could happen next. This insight allows users of the forecast to take action and influence the vision of the future offered by the forecaster.

Market Forecasters answer questions like:

• What are the likely sales in my market over the next 6 months?
• What are the likely sales in my market over the next 5 years?
• What is the growth potential in segment X of my market vs. segment Y in 5 years
• What is the potential to create a market where there are no products yet?
• What is the growth potential of my market if the basic product features and functions are different from what’s offered today?

Depending on the purpose, the forecaster can be in the business of prediction or explanation or both.  Consistently getting the answer right (regardless of the “how”) is a great benefit.  Understanding why the result occurred, gives you power to influence the future – which is a greater benefit. Be sure you are clear about which one you’re doing.

For the purpose of clarity, we’ll call the focus on prediction “near term forecasting” and the focus on prediction and explanation combined “long-term forecasting”.  “Near” and “long” are relative terms – consumer products may have short life cycles in real-time (perhaps the duration of the December holiday season). This type of product is certainly a candidate for a near term forecast.  On the other hand, the life cycle of a large-scale technology product such as data center sized storage products, are likely to require a long term forecast.

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Market sizing is (and this is true of many areas of market research) a combination of science and art. Many analyst firms provide market sizing services to companies as a cornerstone of the syndicated research programs they offer. Companies interested in understanding (typically from a supply side analysis) the size of a market, use these services to determine market share and to plan future business strategy.

Gathering sales information from at least all the major players in a market is a typical approach to sizing. Further detail by market segment and geography is also typically part of the effort to size a market. The greater the detail the easier it is to find errors in the estimations.

Ultimately, companies use market sizing to estimate the position they hold in the market place. The estimates of market share become increasing accurate as firms compare the data for current size with the historical information they have collected. An analyst firm with five or more years in the business can pinpoint the size of a market with remarkable accuracy – assuming they are using a solid methodology, but that’s a topic for another time.

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In real estate, there are three important considerations location, location and location! Project management also has three important considerations they are: communication, communication, and communication! 

Before we go further in our discussion of project management, let’s discuss communication. Communication with team members, vendors, and clients throughout the project is vital. Okay, you knew that – right!? 

The frequency and type of communication will change throughout the course of the project, but establishing consistent meeting times and consistent communication patterns will ensure that the client and team members are aware of the latest progress and issues as they occur.

Documentation is also critical.  So much happens on a project before it goes into the field changes are bound to happen and equally true the reasons and approvals can be forgotten – don’t let that happen. Create a clear and friendly paper trail.  You should, as a best practice, always follow-up meetings and phone conversations with an email.  Summarizing the conversations that took place as well as noting decisions, next steps, and approvals will all help to keep the project on track.

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